WHAT COULD A SUPER EL NIÑO MEAN FOR MT. BACHELOR?
If you've been watching the long-range forecasts for winter, you've probably heard a lot about the Super El Niño. As a ski resort that relies almost entirely on natural snowfall, we are no strangers to navigating the speculation, excitement, and anxiety that come with the weather predictions.
Betsy Norsen, our Senior Mountain Operations & Snow Safety Manager who is going on year 27 of working at Mt. Bachelor always says, “Nothing is more humbling than trying to forecast the weather at Mt. Bachelor.” (Even though she’s pretty spot on most of the time.)
While our teams use a variety of forecasting tools, weather apps, and data points to make operational decisions, the environment we work in is extremely dynamic, and the only guarantee is that we really can’t rely on any guarantees.
So, when the annual long-range forecast comes out, we don’t put too much stake into what could happen – but that doesn't mean we can't have a little fun looking at the data.
This week, I dove into our historical snowfall and operating data to see what happened during past El Niño seasons, and here’s what I found:
On record, Mt. Bachelor has experienced three Super El Niño seasons (1982/83, 1997/98, and 2015/16) and a handful of weak to strong El Niño seasons. Across those Super El Niño seasons, Mt. Bachelor averaged 427 inches of snowfall and 204 operating days – that’s a snowfall total two feet above our current annual average, and a full 6.5 months of skiing and riding.
To be fair, three seasons is a small sample size, but this data makes me optimistic about the Super El Niño season ahead.
Going back a little further into the archives, one of the strongest El Niño winters on record (1982/83) was a pretty snowy one at Mt. Bachelor. We opened on November 12 that year and received 536 inches of snow, well above the 398-inch annual average for that decade.
Things get even more interesting when you look at the bigger picture. Since 2010, La Niña has dominated forecasts. Over the past 16 years, we’ve experienced:
- Nine La Niña seasons (annual average snowfall of 462 inches)
- Four El Niño seasons (annual average snowfall of 355 inches)
- Three Neutral seasons (annual average snowfall of 373 inches)
At first glance, that might suggest La Niña is the clear snow winner at Mt. Bachelor, but keep in mind averages are hugely impacted by the sample size, and both Mt. Bachelor’s highest and lowest snowfall years during that time frame were during La Niña seasons:
- 665 inches in 2010/11
- 206 inches in 2025/26
This proves that individual winters with the same designation can vary a lot – 459 inches (roughly 38 feet) in this specific case.
Similarly, our lowest total annual snowfall on record during an El Niño season was 213 inches in 2014/15 (a Weak El Niño), and our highest was 536 inches in 1982/83 (a Super El Niño). That’s a 373-inch swing between two El Niño winters.
These long-range forecasts may tell us something about the larger climate pattern, but they don’t dictate what happens on our slopes. Each winter comes with its own unique factors that play into the overall skiing and riding conditions.
With another Super El Niño in the forecast for 2026/27, it’s easy to get caught up in the buzz around what that could mean for the snow sports industry.
Instead, let’s just look at the forecast as one piece of the puzzle—and take some encouragement from the fact that we’ve already received a little taste of winter.
Nobody knows for sure what this winter will bring. Maybe (hopefully) the snow will be relentless. Maybe we’ll spend a few weeks wishing the snow would hurry up. Maybe we’ll get a little bit of everything—which, if you’ve spent enough winters in Central Oregon, sounds about right.
Regardless of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral classifications, we’ve had plenty of variability from season to season, and good times are had even on the most challenging days.
Now bring on the snow!
A Note on the Data:
As the Communications & Community Relations Manager, I have the pleasure of working closely with our Mountain Dispatch team throughout winter. Dispatch collaborates with departments like Pro Patrol, Lift Maintenance, Grooming, and Lift Operations to document what's happening on the hill—from snowfall totals and weather data to skiing and riding conditions and chairlift operations.
We're lucky to have impressive people who have collected and maintained Mt. Bachelor's historical snowfall and operational data over the years, particularly Drew Jackson. I want to give them credit here, because keeping a consistent record for decades across multiple departments, seasonal workers, and technological advances isn’t easy.
Roles change, people leave, reporting and tracking practices evolve, and weather instrumentation isn’t always reliable. The alpine environment is a messy place to collect data. We've done our best over the years to maintain accurate and consistent records, but like any long-running dataset, there are limitations and occasional gaps.
Still, the data gives some pretty interesting stats to look back on.